Parlaydar · Free Sports Probability Research

GAME CENTER / LIVE BOARD

Today's Radar

Competition

Game date (Eastern)

MATCHUPS

Waiting for scores

Loading games…

No imports. No account. Scores load automatically when the external feed is accessible. NCAA live win probabilities use our trained score-and-clock model until verified pregame Elo data is provisioned.

SELECTED MATCHUP

None selected

Select a game

Home score margin

Regulation minutes remaining

Automatic model selection

PARLAYDAR · HOME WIN PROBABILITY

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Home —

Away —

HOME MODEL FAIR ODDS

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AWAY MODEL FAIR ODDS

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ESPN REPORTED WIN PROBABILITY

Not fetched

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Not a validated, timestamp-matched comparison.

No setup required. Uses the score-and-clock model unless pregame Elo is available automatically.

ADD MODELED MONEYLINE LEG

Simulation only

ESPN / MARKET LINES

Spread & total

Checking available odds

Select a game to view ESPN's available market information. Betting lines may not appear for every event.

Select a line to prefill the market builder. Prices shown are ESPN-reported references, not Parlaydar predictions. They are not guaranteed to be live or available to wager.

SPREADS · TOTALS · ALTERNATE LINES

Build any market.

ALL 3 LEAGUES

ESPN lines and reference prices fill in automatically when provided. You can still adjust a line or price manually for an alternate market. You can add spreads and game totals even where Parlaydar has no trained probability model. These legs are marked unmodeled—market-implied odds are not predictions.

Market

Line (e.g. +7.5, -3.5, 154.5)

Offered American odds

SELECTION PREVIEWMarket price

Select a matchup

Select a game and enter a line.

PARLAY LAB / MULTI-MARKET SIMULATIONS

My Parlay

COMBINED PROBABILITY

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MODEL FAIR ODDS

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Add selections from Game Center.

SIMULATED LEGS

No selections yet.

MARKET PRICE COMPARISON

Hypothetical fair value

Offered parlay American odds (auto-fills when every leg has a price)

Hypothetical bankroll ($)

BREAK EVEN

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MODEL EV

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¼ KELLY

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Purely mathematical simulation. Model uncertainty and dependence mean Kelly amounts are not suitable for real wagering.

SAVE SIMULATION

Ticket label

Hypothetical stake ($)

MODEL OPERATIONS / HISTORICAL STRENGTH

Elo Operations

TEAM RATINGS

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DAYS APPLIED

0

LATEST ELO DATE

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01 / IMPORT YOUR R RATINGS

Paste a team_id,elo CSV. Import resets this browser's Elo history but does not affect your saved simulated tickets. Use October 31, 2026 only with ratings already regressed for the new season.

Ratings valid through

No ratings imported

02 / REVIEW A DAY OF COMPLETED GAMES

Next required calendar date

PREFLIGHT

Not checked

Events received

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Valid final records

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Each date requires manual review before provisional commit.

“Confirm no games” is available only after a valid *empty* scoreboard response and must be checked against another schedule source. Empty days remain provisionally audited, not independently verified.

Elo uses the original research update rules: 1500 initial, K=20, +65 home advantage even at neutral sites, 75% offseason retention. Updates use each day's beginning ratings. This retains the research model's limitation instead of silently changing its inputs.

SIMULATION ARCHIVE

Saved Tickets

SAVED

0

SETTLED

0

Only officially completed scores returned by the public ESPN feed are considered. Missing results stay pending.

MODEL LAB / INTEGRITY

Research Insights

Moneyline probabilities use your validated research coefficients. Spread and total legs currently support lines, sportsbook prices, simulation, and result settlement only; no trained spread/total probabilities are claimed.

MODEL BRIER ↓

0.118

BASELINE BRIER ↓

0.125

MODEL LOG LOSS ↓

0.361

HELD-OUT GAMES

6,273

These are previously reported, rounded historical research metrics—not live app accuracy. The 2025–26 holdout was reused during development, so an untouched future-season test is still required.

FROZEN MODEL FORMULA

z = 0.2305631 + 0.3085377·M + 0.4639549·T + 0.4445366·E − 0.2448083·M·T + 0.7037990·E·T
P(home win) = 1/(1+exp(−z))

M = home score − away score; T = remaining regulation minutes / 40; E = (home pregame Elo − away pregame Elo) / 100.

QUALITY GATES REMAINING

Independent schedule reconciliation, official final-score comparisons, neutral-site adjustment retraining, continuous-clock validation, 2026–27 untouched evaluation, and sports-data redistribution permissions.

YOUR LOCAL DATA / CONTROL

Settings & Backup

SAVE YOUR ENTIRE APP STATE

Export a portable JSON backup of Elo ratings, daily snapshots, saved parlay tickets, and model selections. Browser-local data may be temporary; back up often.

APP BEHAVIOR

Game scores refresh every 60 seconds while the app is open and visible. Results checks are user-triggered. Elo data for the enhanced model requires a future server-side update service. There is no hosted backend, login, payment, or guaranteed data feed.

BRANDING

This is the only Parlaydar logo asset in this build. No reinterpretations or alternates.